September 10, 2024

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has deep historical roots, but it all began in 2014

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has deep historical roots, but the most recent phase began in 2014 and has dramatically shaped global geopolitics. Here’s a brief overview:

2014: Euromaidan and Annexation of Crimea

  • Euromaidan Protests: Pro-European Union protests in Kyiv, Ukraine, led to the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014.
  • Annexation of Crimea: In response, Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, following a controversial referendum that was not recognized by most of the international community. This marked the beginning of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

2014-2015: War in Eastern Ukraine

  • Donbas Conflict: Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared independence, leading to a war with Ukrainian government forces. Russia was accused of supporting the separatists with weapons and troops, though it denied direct involvement.
  • Minsk Agreements: The Minsk I (2014) and Minsk II (2015) agreements were brokered to establish a ceasefire and political settlement, but they failed to end the fighting, leading to a frozen conflict.

2015-2021: Ongoing Conflict and Diplomatic Stalemate

  • Low-Intensity Conflict: Despite the Minsk agreements, sporadic fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, resulting in thousands of deaths and a humanitarian crisis. Efforts at diplomatic resolution through the Normandy Format (involving Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France) made little progress.
  • International Sanctions: The West imposed economic sanctions on Russia, impacting its economy but failing to change its policies in Ukraine.

2021-2022: Escalation and Full-Scale Invasion

  • Military Buildup: In late 2021, Russia began amassing troops near Ukraine’s borders, raising fears of a larger conflict.
  • 2022 Invasion: On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the most significant escalation since 2014. The invasion aimed to overthrow Ukraine’s government and install a pro-Russian regime. Ukraine, supported by Western military aid, mounted a strong defense, and the conflict became a protracted and brutal war.
  • International Response: The invasion led to unprecedented international sanctions against Russia and a global outcry. NATO and the European Union provided significant military and humanitarian support to Ukraine, while many countries condemned Russia’s actions at the United Nations.

2023-2024: Stalemate and Continued Fighting

  • Military Stalemate: By 2023, the conflict had settled into a stalemate, with both sides controlling significant territories. Russia annexed four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) in 2022, though these annexations were widely condemned and not recognized internationally.
  • War Crimes and Humanitarian Impact: The war has led to widespread destruction, with numerous reports of war crimes, including attacks on civilians. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced internally and abroad.
  • Global Impact: The conflict has had a significant impact on global energy markets, food security (as both Ukraine and Russia are major grain exporters), and geopolitical alignments, with Russia increasingly isolated from the West and deepening ties with countries like China and Iran.

Ongoing Situation

  • The war continues with no clear end in sight, and peace talks have stalled. The situation remains fluid, with periodic escalations and shifts in military tactics and control over regions.

This covers the major events from 2014 to 2024, but the situation is extremely complex, with many underlying factors and ongoing developments.